Following the positive US Nonfarm Payroll and better than expected Unemployment, the US markets are expected to keep an eye on inflation and continue pricing in the US Federal Reserve’s rate hikes by the end of 2022. The U.S Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM will be released at 15:30 on Tuesday 09 November 2021. Meanwhile, the UK market is finding its balance and factoring the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee decision on keeping interests steady for now at 0.10%, nevertheless sent a strong message that market pricing on the speed and extend of tightening in coming years was overdone.
Tuesday – 09 November 2021
Economic Sentiment – German November ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 20.0 from 22.3.
Producer Price Index – October’s PPI headline is expected at 0.5% gains for both the headline and core, following respective gains of 0.5% and 0.2% in October. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric ticking down to 8.5% from an 8.6% pace in September that was the sixth consecutive all-time high. The y/y core measure is set to hold steady from 6.8% in September, carrying on a seven-month streak of all-time highs. Both the headline and core y/y metrics look poised to peak around year-end at the earliest. The massive PPI climb since the start of 2021 exceeded the uptrend in the headline and core CPI data, and both sets of gains are chasing outsized increases in the trade price measures, alongside ongoing supply constraints that have provided a powerful lift for the inflation indexes.
Wednesday – 10 November 2021
Consumer Price Index – October’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow by 0.6% m/m from 0.1% m/m while the headline should double to 1.4%.
Consumer Price Index – October gains of 0.4% are seen for the CPI headline and 0.2% for the core, following the same respective gains in September of 0.4% and 0.2%. CPI gasoline prices look poised to jump 5% in October. As-expected October figures would result in a 5.7% y/y increase that would mark a 31-year high, following a 13-year high of 5.4% in September that sits just below a prior cyclical peak of 5.6% in July of 2008. Core prices should show a 4.2% y/y rise from 4.0% in September, versus a 29-year high of 4.5% in June. Widespread production bottlenecks are lifting all the inflation metrics in 2021, such as PPI and the trade price indexes, alongside a boost to the y/y figures from base effects that have largely dissipated.
Jobless Claims – The initial claims downtrend gained steam in October, after moderating in September. Initial claims averaged 285k in October, versus much higher prior averages of 341k in September, 352k in August, and 393k in July. The 291k BLS survey week reading undershot recent survey week readings of 351k in September, 349k in August, and 424k in July. Initial claims have most recently fallen to a second consecutive cycle-low of 269k.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories – The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. Inventory levels influence the price of petroleum products which will trickle down to US inflation. Crude Oil Inventories came to 3.291M, versus 4.267M from 27 October 2021.
Thursday – 11 November 2021
Employment and Unemployment Rate – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a mixed employment report, with a growth of 50k jobs in October although unemployment ticked up to 4.7% from 4.6% in September.
Gross Domestic Product and Manufacturing Production – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. It measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Preliminary Q3’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% q/q and 6.8% y/y. Manufacturing Production for September is forecasted to slow down at 0.1% m/m from 0.5% m/m last month.
ECB Economic Bulletin and EU Economic Forecasts – The macroeconomic projections cover the outlook for the eurozone, and will also cover GDP and inflation In the region.
South Africa Mining Production – Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) releases monthly mining production indices and mineral sales based on the information made available by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE). This is used to calculate the volume of mining production as part of estimating the gross domestic product (GDP).
Friday – 12 November 2021
Jolts Job Opening (USD, GMT 15:00) – September’s Jolts Job Opening is anticipated at 10.925M from 10.439M.